Making of market projection will
be needed for all parties involved in the wood pellet business, especially the
producers of wood pellets itself. Increasing or reducing production even
stopping production could be done if the situation and conditions support it. A
projection capable of presenting accurate data will facilitate the decision
making. The level of accuracy of precise data and sharp analysis and presented
in an informative and attractive make a projection so valuable and made a major
reference for all parties involved in this business. Below we try to present
the projection of wood pellet market until 2025 which is collected from various
sources and personal experience. May be a useful projection for the reader.
Wood pellet market is generally
grouped into two, namely industry and heating. The industrial sector is
electricity generation, while the heating sector is heating and boiler. The
quality of industrial wood pellets is lower than the premium wood pellet. The
need for wood pellets for industries is usually very large even the delivery or
transportation using bulk shipment while for heating needs smaller amount
usually packed in jumbo bag and then arranged in containers. Another difference
is that the wood pellets of the marketing industry are heavily influenced by
the policy of the country concerned (policy driven) while the wood pellet for
heating is strongly influenced by the price of other fuels, such as petroleum
and gas. The above things underlying the characteristics of the wood pellet
market.
The last few years the global wood
pellet market (both industrial and heating sectors) does not seem to be
exhilarating and there are even excesses in some places. Why does this happen?
Firstly, because a number of policies for the use of wood pellets have not been
effectively implemented because the power plants have not yet been completed or
in the development stage, and some power plants are still in the co-firing test
phase with wood pellets. Second, the price of cheap competitor fuel, especially
petroleum which even reached its price of 30 dollars per barrel that is in
early 2016. This condition even to shift the position of wood pellet as the
cheapest fuel for the heating sector. When oil prices more than 63 dollars per
barrel it is predicted the wood pellet market will improve. And thirdly, due to
climate change, the winters in Europe are not in recent years warmer or less
cold than before. Of course this condition also reduces the consumption of wood
pellets. Logically when the above conditions can turn out otherwise the wood
pellet market will improve.
Different regions and countries have
their own market characteristics. Europeans generally use wood pellets for both
industry and heating, and in particular Italy uses wood pellets mostly forheating. The wood pellet stove there can even be operated with applications on
smartphones or gadgets. While the market in Asia the use of wood pellets a lot
for heating especially for boilers, drying and cooking but very rarely for the
use of space heaters. In the future, the use of wood pellets in Asia will be
dominated for the industrial sector, ie power plants when power plants in Japan
and Korea and even China use wood pellets for fuel. As for the American market,
especially the United States and Canada the use of wood pellets mostly for the
industrial sector even in the next few years there is a tendency to be
improved. What about the conditions in Australia and Africa? So far there has
been no clear policy related to biomass fuel especially wood pellet in both
continents. Its use is limited to heating and the portion is still small and
smaller for the industrial sector at power plants.
The year 2020 is an important year for
the wood pellet market because that year most of the power plants built are
already in operation including a number of policies can be effective as they
are supported by these generating facilities. The year 2020 also means when
massive wood pellets start, because the need for wood pellets has increased
significantly. FutureMetrics estimates for wood pellet demand in 2025 will be
30 million tons, while RISI writes its 50 million ton estimated by 2024 and
Viridis Energy says the value of this business will reach 9 billion US dollarsby 2020. Futuremetrics in more detail also provides market analysis in Canada
and Japan. Several other indications add to the accuracy of the analysis that
Korea invested $ 11.6 billion in 2016 for alternative energy and according to
the Korea Forest Biomass Association it will increase its import wood pellet
from 1.5 million tons in 2015 to 8.5 million tons in 2022. To be able to
capture these opportunities certainly need preparation from this moment,
especially for the producers of wood pellets.
Where and who is the largest wood
pellet user today? Britain is currently the largest wood pellet user with three
power plants, Lynemouth, MGT and Drax. The policies of each country are more
unique and specific to the conditions of the country , although it usually
refers to more macro policies, such as occurs in EU countries. In European
bioeconomy policy they have a target for 21% of electricity and 20% of heating
comes from renewable energy, then each country has its own policy that refers to
the collective agreement. The Netherlands with its co-firing program will also
increase the demand for wood pellets, although it remains unclear, but if it
does this will increase demand for wood pellets by 3.5 million tonnes / year.
Likewise co-firing at Langerlo in Belgium will also increase the demand for
wood pellets as well. Japan and South Korea that declared the decrease of CO2
emission have regulation related to usage of biomass fuel especially wood
pellet.
European pellets production in 2015 is
14.1 million tons, while consumption reaches 20.3 million tons meaning less 6.2
million tons. Use for the heating sector reached 10.3 million tonnes, or 51% of
total consumption or beat the use of pellets for industries such as power
plants such as Drax. If every home in Europe consumes 2.5 tons of pellets per
year, then there are about 4 million consumers. While the six largest pellet
producers in Europe namely, Germany (2 million tons), Sweden (1.7 million
tons), Latvia (1.6 million tons), Estonia (1.3 million tons), Austria (1
million tons) and France (1 million tons). And for more details the major
pellet consumer countries for the European heating sector are Italy (3.1
million tons), Germany (2.3 million tons), Denmark (1.8 million tons), Sweden
(1.6 million tons ), France (1 million tons), and Austria (0.9 million tons).
Heating stove (pellet stove) also beat the boiler. Italy with 95% pellet
consumption for stove, and boiler only 5%, while Germany 60% wood pellet with
stove and boiler reach 40%.
China has so far been unclear about
its biomass fuel-related policies, both the production potential and the use of
wood pellets. But the data that the forest area in China is so limited that it
will be difficult to produce wood pellets in large quantities, but agricultural
waste is very abundant. This pellet from agricultural waste has limitations on
its quality, ie high chlorine which is corrosive to the metal pipe boiler and silica
is abrasive. The agro-waste pellet or pellet fuel from these agricultural
wastes becomes unusable in the pulverized system, since it is mainly a chlorine
problem, or if it can be used the portion is so small that the problems can be
minimized. Another problem with low melting ash temperature will cause slag or
clinker which may damage the combustion equipment at the plant. So that
agro-waste pellets can be used on non-pulverized systems such as combustion
with moving grate (chain grate) and gasification. Although there is always amarket for every pellet fuel, but because the majority of existing power plants
use pulverized systems so it is necessary to replace the system to use
agro-waste pellets and this is of course not easy, fast and cheap. It also makes
the target of reducing CO2 (Carbon Reduction) is also difficult to meet.
Another thing that can be done is to use wood pellets and it means that import
is very much needed. High silica content in agricultural waste becomes a
problem especially during production or shoveling and its use. Examples of high
agricultural waste silica content is rice husk. Still according to
FutureMetrics calculations if the portion of co-firing wood pellet is only 5%
only and that too is done only by 16% of coal power plant in China, hence it
can cause wood pellet demand almost 40 million ton / year.
Indonesia's potential is good enough
to become one of the world's major player of wood pellets. With a tropical
climate, high rainfall, fertile soil, geographical location is quite close to
Japan, South Korea and China and the area of good plantation industry (HTI)
which covers about 80 million hectares, polyculture with oil palm plantations,
marginal that can be used for energy plantations. Why use energy plantations to
supply woody raw materials for wood pellet production? This is because with the
energy plantation the supply of raw materials for wood pellets can be large and
stable for a long period of time, more detail for energy plantation can be read
here. Indonesia is also known as the largest producer of CPO or crude palm oil
with production of 23 million tons / year, but with monoculture in large
plantations the plantation will be susceptible to disease and its production is
not optimal, for that polyculture with energy plantation is the best solution
for more detail can be read here. Forests of industrial crops that also
millions of hectares can also be optimized with energy plantations, for more
detail can be read here. Meanwhile, to design wood pellet production from
energy plantation can be read here.
Likewise the unused fields, marginal
land to critical land will also provide great benefits with the energy
plantation. One more thing is the consumption of protein, especially meat for
the people of Indonesia also still needs to be improved because it is below the
average world consumption, which is 16 grams / day, while the world average of
31 grams / day. Big sheep farms can be made by feeding the leaves of energy-rich
leguminoceae plantation crops, also low in tannins and grasses with grazing in
the plantations. The leaves are rich in protein has a high conversion into lamb
meat, which later on the meat is eated by humans. This protein is very
important for the body because it works for the growth of cells and the sheep
will also be our best treasure. Do not let Indonesia want to boost meat
production with the farm, but on the one hand also boost imports of animal feed
such as corn and soybeans due to less availability of domestic animal feed. In
addition, sheep feed with grass and foliage will make the meat has a ratio of
omega 6 to omega 3 close to 1, so it will be the world healthiest food. Unlike
if the cattle are fed grains then the ratio of omega 6 to omega 3 large, can be
more than 10 and this is also less good.
Will Indonesia also be barrier-free to
become one of the world's largest producers of wood pellets? The answer, of
course not. Major countries such as Canadian wood pellet producers who are rich
in woody biomass from forestry also do not remain silent and try to seize and
lead the world wood pellet market. Even Canada has targeted Europe and Asia as
its wood pellet market, namely wood pellet production from western Canada for
Japanese and Korean markets and from the eastern part for the European market.
Meanwhile, domestic policy also requires wood pellets because pan-Canadian
climate deal is targeting coal-free power plants by 2030. Europe is still the
most important market destination for export wood pellets from Canada,
accounting for 80% of its export volume. And almost all is for the electricity
industry sector, namely in England, Belgium and the Netherlands and only
slightly for the heating sector in Italy. Seeing opportunities for the shortage
of wood pellet supply in Europe, some European countries have also started
emerging as wood pellet producers by 2016, such as Ukraine 360 thousand tons
(plus 1 million tons of pellet fuel made from agricultural waste such as straw
from wheat, sunflower husk), Serbia (250 thousand tons), Croatia (232 thousand
tons), and Slovenia (110 thousand tons). Estonia and Latvia, two small
countries in Europe also began to become rivals for Canada. While other
countries in Europe have also started to increase production. What is the
current production of wood pellets in Indonesia? Wood pellet production in
Indonesia is relatively small approximately 80,000 tons per year while Malaysia
has more than 180 thousand tons per year and mostly for the Korean market which
is more than 70% both from Indonesian and Malaysian producers. While the export
to Japan is still very small. Finally there are some things to note for the
producers: first, evidence of sustainability, the two qualities, the three
strengths and financial reliability, and the fourth that is the competitive
price.
In addition to Canada, the United
States and Europe are the largest producers today, as well as users of wood
pellets in large quantities. But there is a difference between the three, which
Canada exports most of its wood pellets, many Americans use wood pellets
domestically, while Europe still needs very much wood pellets from other
countries. There are also a number of wood pellet producers in Asia, more
specifically in Southeast Asia such as Malaysia, Thailand and Vietnam. The land
area in Indonesia and the various conditions that support it make the potential
to become a leader for the production of wood pellets in Southeast Asia is very
large. Another factor is the low target of the Indonesian government for
biomass energy in the national energy mix which according to Indonesian PresidentialRegulation no 5 of 2006 only 5% and even then in 2025, so the majority of wood
pellet production can be directed to big wood pellet market like Japan and
South Korea. Meanwhile, if the heating market is more influenced by the price
of energy or fuel of competitors, not because of policy or regulation, the
price of competitor's fuel such as coal, petroleum, gas and even wood will
determine the amount of wood pellet consumption in the country. Conditions in
Indonesia basically also support for the wood pellet market for heating both
for industry and household that use LPG (propane), because the price of wood
pellet is much cheaper in terms of energy content. Unfortunately not many are
working on this market, this is because there are several barrier factors that
are limited supply of wood pellets and cook stoves are practical for the
sector.
Conclusion: Indonesia has a great
chance to become a major player of wood pellet both as producer and user as well.
It is supported by a number of natural conditions, land area and geographic
position. But since there is no clear policy for the use of fuel or wood pellet
energy sources for power generation and national energy policy under
Presidential Regulation no 5 of 2006 only targets 5% for biomass energy in
renewable energy mix so that the role of wood pellet producers with the
majority of their products for export market is more a priority. Energy
plantations as a way to produce the raw material of wood pellet industry with
large quantities, continuous and stable and the potential to produce food in
the form of protein from sheep meat is the best choice. Improvement of
generations to a glorious civilization to light the world, one of them with
food in the form of meat that halalan thoyyiban, namely healthy, delicious and
quality with sufficient nutritional content of the protein.Energy development with
wood pellet production derived from wood in the trees in the energy plantations
are also in line with the instructions of theQur'an.
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